CallMarket
The busiest non-sports questions on Kalshi, against Polymarket US and the global book. v0.1
Snapshot taken 2026-09-15T21:39 UTC — 0.0h old. These are not live prices. The board is fetched on a schedule and this page is a view of that fetch, so treat every number as of the timestamp above and check the venue before acting. Polymarket US publishes no volume figures at all, so it cannot be ranked by activity — only by how much of its book is quoted. The global book is shown for reference and is not tradeable by US users.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
kalshi KXPRESNOMD-28 · Elections · 24h volume 218,374,505 · 48 outcomes · settles 2028-11-07
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Hunter Biden — every other outcome reads the same way): If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 0.16 / 0.17 | 0.20 / 0.21 | - |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.15 / 0.16 | 0.18 / 0.19 | - |
| Gavin Newsom | 0.13 / 0.14 | 0.18 / 0.19 | - |
| Kamala Harris | 0.08 / 0.08 | 0.12 / 0.13 | - |
| Pete Buttigieg | 0.05 / 0.05 | 0.05 / 0.06 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.2c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2028-11-07. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Venue call, not a trade. The whole field is cheaper on Kalshi: outcomes sum to 0.99 against 1.14 on the other book. That is vig across every outcome at once, not an edge on any one of them.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26SEP · Economics · 24h volume 86,137,200 · 5 outcomes · settles 2026-09-16
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Cut >25bps — every other outcome reads the same way): If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Hike 25bps | 0.86 / 0.87 | no quote | - |
| Fed maintains rate | 0.12 / 0.13 | no quote | - |
| Cut >25bps | 0.00 / 0.01 | no quote | - |
| Cut 25bps | 0.00 / 0.01 | no quote | - |
| Hike >25bps | 0.00 / 0.01 | no quote | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 1.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- The two books agree closely on the outcomes both list. Trade wherever your money already is.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
kalshi KXPRESPERSON-28 · Elections · 24h volume 66,451,936 · 30 outcomes · settles 2029-11-07
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Gavin Newsom — every other outcome reads the same way): If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| J.D. Vance | 0.22 / 0.23 | no quote | - |
| Jon Ossoff | 0.11 / 0.12 | 0.14 / 0.15 | - |
| Marco Rubio | 0.10 / 0.11 | 0.11 / 0.12 | - |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.09 / 0.09 | 0.12 / 0.13 | - |
| Gavin Newsom | 0.07 / 0.08 | 0.07 / 0.08 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2029-11-07. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Venue call, not a trade. The whole field is cheaper on Kalshi: outcomes sum to 0.99 against 1.26 on the other book. That is vig across every outcome at once, not an edge on any one of them.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
2028 Republican presidential nominee
kalshi KXPRESNOMR-28 · Elections · 24h volume 64,439,611 · 38 outcomes · settles 2028-11-07
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Thomas Massie — every other outcome reads the same way): If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| J.D. Vance | 0.45 / 0.46 | no quote | - |
| Marco Rubio | 0.20 / 0.21 | 0.22 / 0.24 | - |
| Ron DeSantis | 0.04 / 0.04 | 0.04 / 0.05 | - |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 0.03 / 0.03 | no quote | - |
| Tucker Carlson | 0.03 / 0.03 | 0.01 / 0.02 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2028-11-07. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Not comparable name by name. The venues list different numbers of outcomes (38 vs 14). The shorter field absorbs the probability of everyone it omits, so every name on it prices dearer for a reason that is not a mispricing.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
kalshi KXBTCY-27JAN0100 · Crypto · 24h volume 36,073,600 · 28 outcomes · settles 2027-01-01
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, 19,999.99 or below — every other outcome reads the same way): If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is below 20000.00 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like G
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| 75,000 to 79,999.99 | 0.14 / 0.14 | 0.19 / 0.20 | - |
| 70,000 to 74,999.99 | 0.13 / 0.13 | 0.12 / 0.13 | - |
| 80,000 to 84,999.99 | 0.12 / 0.12 | 0.14 / 0.15 | - |
| 65,000 to 69,999.99 | 0.09 / 0.09 | 0.10 / 0.11 | - |
| 85,000 to 89,999.99 | 0.09 / 0.09 | 0.16 / 0.17 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-01-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Venue call, not a trade. The whole field is cheaper on Kalshi: outcomes sum to 1.02 against 1.59 on the other book. That is vig across every outcome at once, not an edge on any one of them.
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
kalshi KXALIENS-27 · Science and Technology · 24h volume 33,792,687 · 8 outcomes · settles 2026-08-01
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Before August — every other outcome reads the same way): If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purp
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0.21 / 0.22 | not listed | - |
| Before 2028 | 0.13 / 0.15 | not listed | - |
| Before 2027 | 0.06 / 0.06 | not listed | - |
| Before December | 0.03 / 0.04 | not listed | - |
| Before November | 0.02 / 0.03 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
kalshi KXMAYORLA-26 · Elections · 24h volume 31,894,586 · 2 outcomes · settles 2027-06-02
Settles on: If Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Karen Bass | 0.62 / 0.63 | not listed | - |
| Nithya Raman | 0.37 / 0.38 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 1.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-06-02. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
kalshi KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26 · Economics · 24h volume 31,469,653 · 1 outcomes · settles 2027-03-01
Settles on: If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: This market was listed using an incorrect underlying value for tech layoffs in 2025. The correct floor strike
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Yes | 0.96 / 0.96 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-03-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
Which party will win the U.S. House?
kalshi CONTROLH-2026 · Elections · 24h volume 30,945,727 · 2 outcomes · settles 2027-02-01
Settles on: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Democratic Party | 0.85 / 0.86 | not listed | - |
| Republican Party | 0.14 / 0.15 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 1.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-02-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
kalshi KXCITRINI-28JUL01 · Elections · 24h volume 25,926,723 · 1 outcomes · settles 2028-07-01
Settles on: If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Yes | 0.19 / 0.20 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 1.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2028-07-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
kalshi KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17 · Politics · 24h volume 22,549,733 · 13 outcomes · settles 2026-07-21
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Before Jul 15, 2026 — every other outcome reads the same way): If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 0.65 / 0.68 | no quote | - |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 0.62 / 0.63 | no quote | - |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.56 / 0.57 | no quote | - |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.46 / 0.48 | no quote | - |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 0.33 / 0.34 | no quote | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 1.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Venue call, not a trade. The whole field is cheaper on Polymarket US: outcomes sum to 0.25 against 7.03 on the other book. That is vig across every outcome at once, not an edge on any one of them.
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
kalshi KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB · Elections · 24h volume 14,315,330 · 4 outcomes · settles 2027-02-01
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, D-House, D-Senate — every other outcome reads the same way): If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single compone
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| D-House, D-Senate | 0.51 / 0.52 | no quote | - |
| D-House, R-Senate | 0.32 / 0.33 | 0.36 / 0.37 | - |
| R-House, R-Senate | 0.14 / 0.15 | no quote | - |
| R-House, D-Senate | 0.01 / 0.01 | 0.03 / 0.04 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-02-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- The two books agree closely on the outcomes both list. Trade wherever your money already is.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Nothing here is a recommendation to trade. Every figure is the venue's own quoted bid and ask at the snapshot time; where a market is one-sided the page says "no quote" rather than showing a midpoint, because a price with no bid behind it is an offer and not a market.